Abstract:
The Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Agency (EPSA) and Federal Ministry of Health with
comprehensive support of USAID Global Health Supply Chain –Procurement and Supply Management
and other stakeholders conducted national antimalaria commodities quantification. The objective of the
quantification is to prepare two years (July 2019- June 2021) forecast and one year supply plan for
antimalaria commodities used for diagnosis and treatment of malaria. The result of the quantification
will be used in planning, mobilizing, and securing financial resources for the forecasting period and in
establishing estimated requirements for procurement. The quantification described in this report
includes consumption, and morbidity/services-based forecast. The results from each of these forecasts
were compared and the team agreed to take mix of the mentioned methods.After calculating the
forecast, a supply plan was developed based on quantities on order, stocks on hand, program minimum
and maximum stock levels, lead time, buffer stocks and seasonality indexes. The final result of the
quantification exercise was a two year forecast requirement (July 2019-June 2021) and one year supply
plan (July 2019-June 2020), including specific quantities of each product that are required, with a
proposed arrival date. The results of the forecast are shown in detail in different sections of this
document. Summary of the forecast costs of the different sub categories of products are shown in
table1 below
