Abstract:
The relevance of agriculture to the promotion of sustainable development largely
depends on the availability of water resources. Climate change affects water
resource by altering the magnitude and patterns of hydrological process. This
study was aimed at evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on
hydrological process of Fincha catchment, upper Blue Nile basin. The ensemble
mean of regional climate models (RCMs) in coordinated regional climate
downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used based on high emission
scenario (RCP8.5) and medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). Soil and Water
Assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological modeling was used to evaluate the impacts
of climate change. The result shows a decreasing precipitation by -8.24% to -
11.32% under RCP4.5 and -7.87% to -9.67% under RCP8.5 in 2021-2050 and
2051-2080, respectively. The temperature will increase under both RCPs. The
decline of precipitation and increase of temperature reduces surface flow,
groundwater and water yield. The increase in Evapotranspiration due to
increased temperature and higher evaporation demands coupled with a
decreasing precipitation leads to a reduced soil moisture. This could reduce the
availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue to the
subsistence agriculture. The increase in seasonal and annual variation of
precipitation and temperature increased the frequency of hot and dry years that
will lead to serious water scarcity that aggravate water stress in the catchment
and further downstream. Consequently, strong mitigation and adaptation through
land and water management by coping with water scarcity in agriculture and
water productivity is indispensable to manage the risks.